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ANALYSIS: Who will win Serie A’s Champions League race?
An ‘expected goals model’ is a method of estimating chance quality more precisely than mere shot numbers, looking at the historical likelihood of a shot going in based on factors like shot location, whether or not the shot was a header, and the angle from goal. It correlates strongly with goals year on year, and provides a useful basis to compare team strength. Only nine teams have a positive expected goal difference, i.e. the difference between expected goals for and against:
The first obvious takeaway is that Napoli and Juventus are markedly ahead of anyone else in the league currently. Past that, looking at the Champions League race, the difference between Fiorentina and Roma is fairly negligible, with Inter trailing a fair bit behind the other two.
This measure of expected goal difference, though a useful indicator of long-term team strength, doesn’t give us much information as to the short-run form of the teams in our three-horse race for a place in the upper echelon of European competition. We can attempt to do this by looking at rolling averages, plotting the teams’ average expected goal difference from the past seven games throughout this season:
Inter’s early season form, while fantastic, preceded a consistent drop in team performance; since then, the team’s short-run form has been rather bipolar. Fiorentina’s brightest period came further into the season, but was also followed by a sharp capitulation. Interestingly, Roma look like the only team on an upward trajectory.
It probably isn’t a coincidence that what looks like Roma’s first consistently good run of the season has come since Luciano Spalletti has been appointed, and my last article for Calciomercato looked at how dropping Francesco Totti may have been a justified decision that contributed to this.
Unless Inter or Fiorentina suddenly recover the output of their peak performances, it looks like there is a relatively straight-forward answer to our question. Given that they are already five points ahead in 3rd place with 9 games to go, and that they look to be on the best recent form, it seems likely that AS Roma will be in the Champions League next season.
Bobby Gardiner @BobbyGardiner
