Horncastle: Analyzing the key tactical battles in Juventus v Napoli
Let’s hope it’s not like the first time. That wintry Sunday 13 years ago when fans at the Virgilio Fedini risked death, not by football but mind-numbing boredom. Sangiovannese and Aglianese were playing as though they had been induced into a coma. It ended 0-0 and, before trudging home, one disgruntled supporter sat behind the dug out shouted: “If you two can get a job in coaching then so can I.” It was a fourth division game so he was realistic about what to expect. But no shots on target by either team left him and the rest of the crowd ruing how no matter how hard they tried they would never get those 90 minutes back.
Responsible for the tedium were a couple of unknowns who would probably remain so as long as their teams continued to play as catatonically as they did that day. Incidentally, the reverse fixture the following March also finished goalless. However, on Saturday night those two good-for-nothings will meet again in the more illustrious surroundings of the J Stadium in Turin to contest a top of the table clash and arguably the biggest game in Italy in years. Maurizio Sarri and Massimiliano Allegri have come a long way. One much faster than the other it must be said.
As Sarri was coming to terms with Alessandria’s relegation to the fourth division after their implication in a betting scandal meant their third place finish was struck from the records, Allegri was celebrating the first Scudetto of his career with Milan. It’s a sensation Sarri might get to feel for the first time in May. Unless of course Allegri takes another step up in calcio’s pantheon and joins the likes of Antonio Conte, Helenio Herrera and Arpad Weisz as a three-time title winner.
Saturday’s game couldn’t be more finely balanced. Only two points separate Napoli and Juventus and when the dust settles in Turin at the weekend there will still be 39 to play for. It is not a title decider but a scent rich in significance hangs in the air.
Tactically how Sarri and Allegri approach this one holds a certain fascination. Since the end of October, Juventus have rediscovered their old impregnability. They have allowed just one goal in 2016 and have kept clean sheets in each of their last five games. The stat that really stands out, however, relates to the shots that opponents have managed to get on Gigi Buffon’s goal: just 11 since the New Year began, an average of less than 2 per game. Teams haven’t been able to get close to them. Juventus are like Floyd Mayweather: Almost impossible to lay a glove on.
But Giorgio Chiellini’s absence complicates matters for Allegri. The temptation is to go with a back four instead of the three-man defence. Typically Martin Caceres would stand in for Chiellini. However, a torn Achilles tendon rules him out for the season. Daniele Rugani is next in line, although Allegri sees him closer to Bonucci in playing style than Chiellini and more comfortable in the centre of a back three rather than out left.
It’s a delicate one: does Allegri persist with a back three but with Rugani in a position he doesn’t believe to be his own or does he move away from the system whose reimplementation coincided with the beginning of a 14-game winning streak? One upside to playing Rugani is that it does at least mean that if Napoli press Claudio Marchisio and Bonucci, Juventus have another player capable of stepping out and getting their passing game going.
The other difficult decision awaiting Allegri, assuming he sticks with the 3-5-2, is on the flanks. What he goes with there will tell us a lot about whether Juventus plan to be cautious or instead throw it to the wind. Juan Cuadrado is in fine form, proving decisive in each of his side’s last couple of games against Genoa and Frosinone. But the trouble is Napoli are at their most dangerous down his wing. Much of their best work comes from the understanding between Faouzi Ghoulam, Marek Hamsik and Lorenzo Insigne. A safer bet would be Stephane Lichtsteiner. Another trick up Allegri’s sleeve might be to play both in a 4-4-2. That way he might be able tie down Napoli’s tricky trio.
If he does want to gamble within a 3-5-2 then a lesser risk - but a risk all the same - would be more daring on the other side. Jose Callejon has been willing to take one for the team this season and curb his attacking enthusiasm in order to balance exuberance on on side with diligence on the other. The Spain international has got back amongst the goals of late but didn’t score in the league until mid-December. Allegri might therefore elect for Alex Sandro ahead of Patrice Evra.
Concentrating their play down that flank would keep it away from the one where Napoli are at their most dangerous. Sandro’s crossing ability can hurt Napoli as it did Torino in the Derby della Mole and against Milan and Man City in the Champions League. But Callejon’s stealth-like runs between left-back and centre-back might still lead Allegri to choose the more experienced and defensively-minded Evra.
In the middle of the park, it can’t be underestimated how crucial Marchisio and Jorginho are to their teams when it comes to establishing a rhythm to their play. Disrupting both will be important. One of Napoli’s midfielders will either have to step up to harry Marchisio or Gonzalo Higuain will have to drop in. Expect Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata to take it in turns getting in Jorginho’s face. As alluded to before, both these teams have contingencies if their principal passer develop a shadow they can’t throw off. Bonucci is a modern-day libero and can pass it with the best of them. But Kalidou Koulibaly is also building a similar reputation for being able to ping out long searching diagonals, particularly in a routine soon after kick off, that both pins opponents back and stretches them so Insigne and Callejon can go to work in 1v1 situations.
That said, the supply lines are too many to cut off definitively. Power down the Bonucci-Marchisio and Koulibaly-Jorginho outlets and there are still players who can make things happen for their strikers. Take Paul Pogba and Marek Hamsik for instance. They can break a game open with a pass, a moment of skill or a goal as they have done so often in the past in this game. Both teams will also have to be careful not to give free-kicks away too close to the box. Pirlo has gone - and doesn’t Morata miss those quick-fire balls over the top - but Dybala has made him a little easier to forget by starting to curl in the free-kicks for Juventus. Insigne is doing the same for Napoli too.
The pair are Juventus and Napoli’s magicians.
Dybala’s blossoming has coincided with Juventus’. Insigne is now as devastating in Serie A as he was under Zdenek Zeman at Pescara in Serie B. His dribbles, movement and flashes of genius go some way to explaining why Gonzalo Higuain is enjoying the most prolific season any striker has had in Serie A since Gunnar Nordahl in 1949-50. The match up between Higuain and Andrea Barzagli, the best striker and defender the league has to offer, promises to be one hell of a battle. How Napoli deal with Dybala will also enthral. Do they stand off him or follow him out of position and into no-man’s land? There’ll be times on Saturday night when Koulibaly and Raul Albiol will second guess themselves. Buffon and Pepe Reina are unlikely to be quiet. As leaders of their teams that’s probably how they’d like it. Neither will go quietly into the night.
Italy’s best attacks and defences will collide with an almighty bang in Turin. Not a wimper like that sorry 0-0 between Sangiovannese and Aglianese all those years ago. Rather than send supporters to sleep, Napoli’s film producing owner Aurelio De Laurentiis expects an all-action drama of historical proportions: “Like Gladiator,” he told La Stampa. If any fans take issue with Sarri and Allegri from the stands at the J Stadium, expect them to turn around and feel perfectly entitled to ask: “Are you not entertained?” Because this should be epic whatever the scoreline.
James Horncastle (@JamesHorncastle)
